System Forming Off North Florida Could Briefly Become Tropical Storm Chantal

Radar and satellite show a circulation trying to spin up offshore of North Florida. An old cold front has sagged into the area and become the main trigger for a potential tropical system to develop. This is not an uncommon scenario early in the hurricane season.

The National Hurricane Center has designated the system Invest-92L, which just means they are investigating it. They have its development odds in the high-medium range.

Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly this afternoon to see if they can detect an organized circulation and to measure the winds. A closed circulation will qualify the system as a depression, while 40 mile per hour winds will get it named Chantal.

The system, whatever form it takes, is likely to lift north toward the South Carolina coast and spread heavy rain once again through the coastal sections of the Carolinas. By Monday, steering currents are forecast to push the system out to sea, although some moisture will remain behind.

The disturbance has a moisture tail that extends over the Florida peninsula. As the core of the system tracks along the Carolina coast, that tail will remain, but should slowly weaken. Some parts of the Florida peninsula will continue to get heavy rain but the overall coverage should decrease through the weekend.

The other element in the formula that has been producing persistent heavy rain over Florida is an upper level disturbance. That system will slowly drift to the west across the Gulf, so that should be out of the picture by late in the weekend. More typical summer weather should return to the Sunshine State by Sunday.

Elsewhere across the Gulf, Caribbean, and the tropical Atlantic, hostile conditions persist to tropical development. No mainline tropical storms or hurricanes are likely before the middle of July, at least.

We are already more than two weeks ahead of the average schedule for development of named storms, and on average, the first hurricane doesn't develop until August 11. If Chantal gets named, it will come almost a month early.

The point is, the number of named storms doesn't mean much. It's the hurricane that count. And they don't usually start until mid-August. So enjoy the break, but there's nothing especially weird going on.