The Atlantic Goes Quiet Again and Southern California Beaches Ready for Another Round of Strong Swells

IN THE ATLANTIC

The atmosphere over the Atlantic, the Caribbean, and the Gulf is taking on a winter-like appearance. Strong upper winds dominate. Nothing tropical is forecast to develop over the next week.

Occasionally, a pocket that could be conducive to tropical development is forecast to appear in the Gulf, but those opportunities look to be fleeting. Anything that develops is unlikely to amount to much.

The potential Gulf disturbance that could eventually develop fits in that "unlikely to amount to much" category – if it has a chance to develop at all. The odds are very low.

Overall, the wet weather pattern is forecast to continue over Florida, however, until a cold front arrives around the middle of the month. At least that's the indication right now.

60 YEARS AGO TODAY

For the third year in a row, a hurricane was tormenting South Florida. As with Cleo in 1964 and Betsy in 1965, forecasters predicted that Inez would affect Miami, then it wouldn't, then it might, and on it went.

On this date in 1966, Inez stalled over the Bahamas before turning back and pouncing on the Florida Keys as a Category 2.

The previous year, Hurricane Watches were issued for North Carolina ahead of Betsy. But the storm turned around and attacked the Bahamas and South Florida. It went on to be a huge disaster in New Orleans.

It would be interesting to see how our computer forecast models of today would handle these annoying storms with weak steering currents that bob and weave before finally making their move.

HURRICANE RACHEL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

Hurricane Rachel is plodding west away from the Mexican coast, but as it heads farther into the open Pacific, the energy that it is putting into the ocean will increasingly reach the Southern California beaches.

During much of next week, south-facing coastal sections – notably in Long Beach and Malibu – will be impacted by Rachel's swells. The ocean along the entire coastline will be turbulent with strong currents and dangerous surf. Beach erosion and some coastal flooding are likely.

ELSEWHERE IN THE PACIFIC

Behind Rachel another system is likely to develop next week. This one would get the name Simon. Early forecasts predict Simon's track will be closer to the Mexican coast, especially north of Manzanillo. But it's too early to have any certainty, of course.

Nolo is back to being a hurricane. It's intensifying as it heads west into the open Pacific.