The Atlantic Looks Quiet while Hurricanes Still Threaten Mexico

Between cold fronts pushing south over the Gulf and Florida, and the El Niño-driven band of upper-level winds over the Atlantic, no tropical development is expected in the foreseeable future that could affect the U.S. or nearby areas.

Is hurricane season over? There's a reasonable chance it is for us, but that's not 100%.

The large disturbance over the far eastern Atlantic is still there, but strong upper-level winds are stretching it out and prohibiting development.

As it heads north, there is a possibility that the system could find a pocket of atmosphere next week that is conducive for development. Residents of the Azores Islands in the northeast Atlantic will have to keep an eye on it.

IN THE PACIFIC NEAR MEXICO

Hurricane Simon continues to ignore its forecasts. It's caught in an area with very light steering currents offshore of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, so it's not proceeding apace to make landfall. Simon is an extremely small hurricane, so the main effect on mainland Mexico at the moment is the dangerous energy the storm is putting into the ocean.

Simon is expected to meander over or near the southern Gulf of California for a few days. Everyone from Cabo San Lucas to Mazatlan to Puerto Vallarta should stay informed. When steering currents are light, small and hard-to-detect factors in the atmosphere can push storms in one direction or the other. So forecasts have notoriously high uncertainty.

A tropical disturbance offshore of southern Mexico looks likely to develop into Hurricane Trudy. Computer forecasts show likely-Trudy tracking near or over the southwest coast of Mexico. Everyone there should be sure to monitor the latest information on the storm.