The disturbance off the Southeast coast is showing some signs of life

The weak area of low pressure off the coast of Georgia is now producing some large thunderstorms and it slides toward the Carolinas. At the same time, a front with its separate low-pressure is advancing toward the same coast. Plus, an elongated area of upper-level low pressure is forecast to set up right along the Southeast and Florida coastline.

Hostile upper-level winds are still blowing across the system pushing the thunderstorms away from the coast.

The computer forecast models have been inconsistent in how they deal with the complicated set of players. The evidence is that eventually the front and the various low-pressure areas will merge in a completely non-tropical setup. If this works out, it will be more like a weak nor’easter along the Carolina or Mid-Atlantic coast.

The only question is whether the low off Georgia becomes some type of tropical system before it merges with the front. The National Hurricane Center is giving that a slight chance of happening over the next few days.

If it does become somewhat tropical, it would just be a meteorological technicality, however. The main effect will still be some gusty winds and a rainy period north of the system, like a typical minor nor’easter.

The tail of this system is a weak front that will stall over the Florida peninsula. South Florida will likely stay on the wet of the front through much of the weekend. With the upper-level low-pressure area over the area as well, periods of heavy rain are expected on Saturday, at least. Next week looks better as of now.

Elsewhere, the tropics are calm, which is a good thing since we’re near the peak King Tide dates. High winds off the ocean and strong swells from storms out a sea make the King Tides worse.

No tropical developments are expected through the middle of next week, at least.