The Tropical Atlantic Remains Closed for Business Though Long-Range Models Show Stirring

Extremely hostile upper-level winds and Saharan dust continue to dominate the tropical Atlantic, so the National Hurricane Center is predicting that nothing will develop through next week, which will take us to the middle of August.

On average, tropical development takes off during the second half of the month. Dr. Bill Gray, who invented seasonal hurricane forecasts over 40 years ago, used to ring a bell on August 20th to signify that the busy part of the hurricane season was beginning – buckle up.

Late in August, the Saharan dust plumes are normally less dense, the ocean water has warmed, and the disturbances coming off Africa become more robust. That all adds up to a higher chance that a system will develop over the Atlantic.

This year, the prohibitive dominoes will likely fall, except for the El Niño-driven band of strong upper-level winds.

Long-range computer models show a better chance that systems tracking across the Atlantic from Africa will try to develop around the middle of the month, but there is nothing you can call a forecast. It's just an indication that conditions will become a bit more conducive to development.

For now, our hot and humid summer rolls on.

IN THE PACIFIC

The NHC still has the odds of development over the next week in two large "lemons" in the low range. The models indicate that something might eventually organize, but the signals are not strong.

The consensus remains that some kind of system will track over or near the Hawaiian Islands in 8 or 9 days, but since nothing has developed yet, the forecasts are fuzzy and subject to change.

In Hawaii, just plan to stay informed.