The Tropical Atlantic Remains Quiet While We Keep a Little Eye on Hawaii

Forecasters at Colorado State University issued their final seasonal forecast today. The numbers didn't change from July. They predict a total of 9 named storms forming in the Atlantic Basin with 4 becoming hurricanes, and 1 of those systems reaching at least Category 3.

We've already had two named storms, of course: Arthur and Bertha. If you missed them, don't worry. They were easily forgettable. But that means, if the forecast is perfect, only 7 more named storms will develop this season.

We are already more than a third of the way through the season according to the calendar, but about 90% of the tropical activity occurs after this date.

The expectation is that the much ballyhooed, but very real and strong, El Niño will dominate the circulation over the tropical Atlantic. That means that more-hostile-than-normal conditions are likely through the season. The El Niño is already having a significant effect on the upper-level winds over the Caribbean and into the main tropical-development zone. And as the El Niño strengthens over the next few months, that effect will just increase.

This doesn't mean, of course, that an important storm won't form. In fact, due to the unsupportive atmosphere over the tropics, the most likely formation location will be in the waters east of the Bahamas or the Gulf. We'll see.

WATCHING OUT FOR HAWAII

The El Niño is just part of the extreme marine heat wave in the Eastern and Central Pacific. That means there is more energy than normal to power tropical storms and hurricanes that develop there.

Long-range computer forecast models are giving us a mixed signal, but there's some indication that a system developing well offshore of Central America could track over or near the Hawaiian Islands 9 or 10 days from now – at the end of next week or over that weekend.

The National Hurricane Center is tracking two disturbances. They have low development chances on both of them over the next week. It's the one closest to Central America — the one I've labeled Disturbance #1 on the graphic — that we'll keep an eye on.

Obviously, since the system has barely begun to develop, the predictions will likely change. Everybody in the islands should just plan to stay informed next week, just in case.