• Bryan Norcross

The tropics are quiet except a weak system north of the Bahamas

The system north of the Bahamas and about 200 miles off the Central Florida coast is just a minor empty swirl of clouds. All the thunderstorms are being blown off to the east by strong upper-level winds, and there’s going to be a front bearing down from the west. So there’s only a slight chance the system will have time to develop, and it's very unlikely that anything significant could evolve.



The system will drift north, and it’s forecast to encounter the front pushing off the East Coast around the weekend. The upper-level winds will be mostly hostile to significant development, so it’s most likely to be absorbed in the frontal system.


The combo with the front might develop into a weak nor’easter-type system near the Mid-Atlantic coast late in the weekend and early next week, but it's uncertain. The computer forecast models are not settled on how these various parts are going to interact.



Elsewhere in the tropics, nothing is cooking. The overall atmospheric pattern has become somewhat hostile to development. The environment might change for the second half of October. We’ll see.


Let’s enjoy the quiet while it exists.