The tropics are taking a nap, but will they wake up?
The large area of disturbed weather east of the Bahamas is from a non-tropical low-pressure system with a robust upper-level disturbance. It’s under strong upper-level winds and will get swept out to sea in the next couple of days.
In the meantime, it will continue to draw tropical moisture from the Caribbean across the islands, so heavy rain is forecast in the mountainous regions. Flooding will be a threat because the ground in some areas is saturated.
The second tropical disturbance we were watching approach the islands is part of that moisture feed, which will enhance the rainfall in some areas.
The disturbance will dawdle over the warm water east of the Bahamas today and tomorrow before being swept away into the middle of the ocean, where it will combine with another system. While it’s stalled, there is a very slight chance the system could become somewhat tropical in its organization. Thus the National Hurricane Center continues to make note of it.
It would be of no consequence if it did become quasi-tropical, except that it would end up in the record book for 2021. By late tomorrow, it should be underway toward oblivion.
The atmospheric pattern across the Atlantic, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico is currently not conducive for tropical development. And it’s forecast to stay that way well into next week at least. Toward the end of the month, however, long-range projections indicate that the negative factors will ease. We’ll see.
The last storm, former Hurricane Sam, transitioned into a North Atlantic winter-type storm on October 5th. In only 4 years out of the last 50, the hurricane season ended earlier, so the odds favor some further development. Especially since the global factors we know like El Niño/La Niña and the ocean-water temperatures would seem to support development.
In the Pacific, Hurricane Pamela is about to make landfall near Mazatlán, Mexico as a Category 1. The storm’s moisture is forecast to spread across central Texas and could cause significant flooding in the Austin area. They are on alert for that possibility later today and tomorrow.