The tropics are winding down as Rafael fades in the Gulf

Tropical Storm Rafael is battling hostile upper wind and increasingly dry air… and losing. The weakening process is forecast to continue as the system meanders around the west-central Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. The only effect on land will be dangerous conditions along the coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas from large waves and strong currents.

Next week, the remnants of Rafael look likely to sink south toward the Mexican coast, but as a weak system. No significant impacts are expected.

The disturbed weather we’ve been watching over and near the northern Caribbean islands is being caused by a weak tropical disturbance and a large upper-level low pressure system. Nothing is likely to come of the combo system. The National Hurricane Center gives it a very low chance of organizing into a tropical depression.

The disturbance will arrive in South Florida late Sunday or Monday, but it will be so dried out by then that it’s not likely to bring much beyond a few showers. 

Long-range computer forecasts show cold fronts sweeping through Florida. If the predictions are correct, any future tropical activity this season should be limited to the southern Caribbean.