• Bryan Norcross

The tropics stay uncannily quiet except for a weak disturbance off the Carolina coast

The National Hurricane Center is giving the disturbance off the Southeast coast a decent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm for a hot minute over the weekend. A front is bearing down on it along with very hostile upper winds. So there’s only a short window of time later today and tomorrow that the disturbance might organize into a something tropical.



Hostile upper-level winds are already pushing the thunderstorms away from the center, which is keeping it from organizing. But computer model forecasts predict they will become somewhat more conductive for development for a brief period of time tonight or tomorrow. The question is whether there’s enough time for the tropical system to organize before it gets absorbed by the front.


Whatever happens, the drama should be over tomorrow. Whether it technically becomes tropical or not, some gusty squalls with heavy rain along the Carolina coast are about all that’s expected.



Elsewhere in the tropics, it’s crickets. Even the long-range computer forecast models keep it quiet. So nothing is expected well into next week, at least.