There's a Good Chance That Hurricane Season 2025 Is Over

A winter weather pattern is forecast to settle over the Gulf, the Caribbean, and the tropical Atlantic. Hostile upper-level winds are increasing spreading across the tropical belt, which is typical of the changing seasons.

It's always possible for a random system to develop in the extreme southern Caribbean or in the middle of the Atlantic, but every indication is that hurricane season is over for the U.S. and the surrounding areas.

If this is it, 2025 produced 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 4 of which were Category 3 and above—including, of course, 3 Category 5 monsters. This was only the second time that three Category 5 hurricanes formed in one season. The other one was the explosive season of 2005, which produced Katrina, Rita, Wilma, after July Cat 5 in the Caribbean named Emily.

The 2025 numbers are very close to average. The official time period we determine what is “normal” is from 1991 to 2020. The average over those years was 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, with 3 of the hurricanes Category 3 and above.

The catastrophic and meteorologically stunning event of the year was, of course, Hurricane Melissa. Melissa was as strong and perfectly formed as any hurricane you're likely to ever see. And in a horrible bit of timing, it peaked just before landfall.

Melissa is going to generate a lot of research because it didn't act like most ultra-strong hurricanes. It never went through what's called an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), which would have had the effect of weakening the winds, at least temporarily, and expanding the breadth of the storm. Apparently the core was so perfectly formed, and the weather pattern around the storm so immaculately supportive, that the ERC was never triggered.

In addition, measurements of extreme winds in the eyewall—even stronger than the 185-mph official landfall intensity—will be double-checked and evaluated. The National Hurricane Center will publish a report on the storm in the spring with their final analysis.

The Jamaicans, Cubans, and Haitians are going to need our help for some time. So as we celebrate a hurricane season with no significant impacts in the U.S., let's keep the people there in our thoughts.