Tropical Depression Two Is Struggling but Bertha Is Still Forecast to Develop in the Northern Gulf

Tropical Depression Two has a broad circulation with clusters of heavy thunderstorms, but it's infused with dry air. The overall environment is less conducive to organizing and strengthening today, but the moderately hostile upper winds still might abate enough for the system to spin up into Tropical Storm Bertha. So far, the sustained winds are less than 40 mph.

Rain bands rotating around the sprawling circulation contain tropical downpours. In the short term, rainfall will be the biggest threat wherever they spread over the coastal sections.

Onshore wind in Apalachee Bay south of Tallahassee could push the water 1 to 3 feet above the normal high tide level. As the storm tracks west, watch for elevated tides all along the northern Gulf Coast.

For the next couple days, the system will drift northwest to west offshore of the coastline. The expectation is for a slow strengthening process under slightly less hostile upper winds, so that by later today or tomorrow, the depression will strengthen enough for the National Hurricane Center to upgrade it to Tropical Storm Bertha.

Remember the rule: Predictions for just-developing, poorly developed, and slow-moving systems are subject to much higher errors, and forecast details are likely to change. Every caveat applies to this system.

Yesterday, there was some concern that Bertha might develop quickly and miss interaction with land as it moved to the west later in the week. That might have resulted in a stronger system reaching Texas. But today, the strong consensus of the computer forecasts is that the depression or a weak Bertha will run into Louisiana and die out there.

The yellow line represents the consensus of the traditional models, and the red one is the Google DeepMind forecast. Notice that both of them lose the circulation over Louisiana.

In addition, upper-level winds are forecast to be quite hostile at that point. Those winds would likely carry the moisture from what's left of the depression or Bertha toward Texas.

Until or if a well-developed center actually forms, the forecasts will be iffy. But the trends are good for a low-end tropical storm at most.

Those upper-level winds are also likely to push the heaviest rain south of the coast and over the Gulf. But heavy, tropical rain bands with gusty winds are still possible at the coast and in adjacent inland sections. Be ready for any local alerts from the National Weather Service.

For now, there's nothing to do but stay aware. We have to see how the system develops today. Will the hostile environment of upper-level winds and dry air continue to take its toll, or will a pocket of conducive atmosphere allow the system to become better developed? Forecasts for well-organized systems are almost always more accurate.