• Bryan Norcross

Tropical development is unlikely this week but watching off the Southeast coast to be sure

The tropics have gone amazingly quiet. The large area of disturbed weather extending from the Caribbean across the southern Bahamas into the Atlantic is being cause by a weak, elongated low-pressure system enhanced by a dip in the jet steam. The jet-stream dip is also causing hostile upper winds to blow over the broad disturbance.



Over the next few days, the weak underlying disturbance will lift north, but the upper-level winds are not expected to abate enough to allow any significant development. At the end of the week, the disturbance may merge with an approaching cold front or become a coastal low-pressure system tracking up the East Coast. Nothing will happen quickly.


In the far North Atlantic, Hurricane Sam has merged with an upper-level low-pressure area. The combo system will evolve into a large winter-type storm.


Sam lasted two weeks, almost reached Category 5 strength, surged in intensity a couple of times, and thankfully missed land.


As predicted, in the central Atlantic, Victor has finally given up the ghost. Strong upper winds and dry air did it in.


Isn’t it great to see the tropical map empty? It’s been a long time. The long-range computer forecast models keep the tropics quiet for the rest of this week, at least.