Tropical development odds remain very low

An upper-level disturbance that produced strong thunderstorms over North Carolina will merge with a stalled front offshore of the Southeast. A broad bulge – a non-tropical low-pressure system called a frontal wave – is forecast to develop along the front.

The satellite shows the tail of the old front off the Carolina coast, as well as the leftover cluster of clouds over and offshore of eastern North Carolina.

If the low has time to tighten up its circulation, and if it can shed its fronts over the warm Gulf Stream water, and if the upper-level winds let up long enough, and if the extremely dry air related to the arriving heat-dome high doesn't absorb its moisture, the non-tropical low could become a tropical depression or low-end tropical storm for about a minute tomorrow or Wednesday.

If I were 50 years younger, I might be able to climb Mount Everest too, but that's not likely to happen either.

The National Hurricane Center is giving this scenario a very low chance of happening in the yellow zone off the Carolina and Georgia coast. Even if a tropical low does develop, it is not likely to affect land, so this is really all for the record books.

Once this dustup is over in the next day or two, the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean, and the Gulf look to stay quiet into July. Hostile upper-level winds from El Niño are creating inhospitable conditions across the tropics, and Saharan dust is putting a cherry on top of the prohibitive atmosphere.

Enjoy your holiday. Happy 250th to America!