Tropical Development Possible & Concerns About Budget Cut That Will Affect Hurricane Forecasts

A cold front pushing through North Georgia today will end up lodged over North Florida by Friday morning. At the same time, a broad upper-level low will sprawl across the Florida peninsula. The combination of those systems looks likely to trigger formation of a broad disturbance that will have the potential of developing into a tropical system.

The National Hurricane Center is painting an area from the extreme northeastern Gulf to the waters off North Carolina. They are giving the system a medium chance of evolving into at least a tropical depression. The consensus of the various computer forecast models is that the system is most likely to develop over the Atlantic, if it does, although development over the northeastern Gulf cannot be ruled out.

The atmospheric pattern does not favor significant development, but it does appear to be supportive of areas with heavy rain into early next week. The location of the heaviest rainfall late in the weekend depends on if a system develops and where it drifts. But for the next few days, the focus of the rain will likely be the Florida peninsula.

Flooding is possible where heavy and persistent rain falls, so stay informed.

NOAA Budget Cuts and Suspension of Satellite Microwave Data

There has been a dizzying spray of news over the past week concerning proposed changes to the data we use to forecast hurricanes and the science we rely on to better understand how storms work so we can continue to improve hurricane prediction. The fact that National Hurricane Center forecasts are the most accurate they've ever been is not an accident. Recent developments, however, put at risk our ability to continue progress in measuring and understanding the processes that cause hurricanes to track one place or the other and sometimes rapidly intensify.

As you've likely heard, last month the Defense Department suddenly announced it was suspending the distribution of microwave data that we've relied on for nearly two decades. A microwave sounder, as it's called, can see under the clouds and show us the otherwise invisible structure of a storm. This data is invaluable, especially when storms are beyond land-based radar range and Hurricane Hunters are not flying reconnaissance missions. These systems provide about half of the microwave imagery in our storm detection tool kit.

The issues here are complicated. The military satellites and the data delivery systems are well past their expiration date. There was also, apparently, a cybersecurity issue involved, though that seems to have been resolved. In a vacuum, retiring these aging systems would be reasonable. The timing is puzzling, however, right before the peak of hurricane season.

The latest update indicates that the data will continue to flow until the end of July. We'll see what happens next.

The breakdown here is a combination of communications and planning. The system’s expiration was not a surprise. Firm plans should have been made years ago to retire this system and replace it with modern technology. But that doesn't excuse the abrupt announcement that an important data source was going to be eliminated.

Even more troubling are the proposed NOAA budget cuts that would terminate most government programs focused on understanding tropical weather and improving hurricane forecasts.

The United States has led the world in hurricane science. Today’s forecast cone is much narrower, and fewer people face unnecessary evacuations because scientific research has given forecasters significantly greater confidence in computer forecast models than we had in the past.

The numbers are difficult to reconcile. The relative pennies it costs to continue hurricane research pale in comparison to the expense of evacuating a large city unnecessarily, to cite just one example.

Now that we are at the dawn of the AI revolution in weather forecasting, we need NOAA scientists to lead the way in helping us understand the strengths and weaknesses of the new technology and how to best implement it into real-time forecasting practices.  We know enough about AI to see that the potential is there to revolutionize weather prediction. But only through rigorous scientific evaluation will we have confidence that it’s not hallucinating when it forecasts a landfalling storm.

Hurricane Hunter capabilities are also at risk. We rely on decades-old aircraft that were scheduled for replacement. The aging fleet requires more maintenance and has more downtime. There was widespread agreement that it was time to upgrade the fleet, but now that’s in doubt.

Congress will have to vote on the budget, of course. A thorough and detailed cost/benefit analysis should be done before drastic cuts are approved. Senators and Representatives from hurricane-prone states should understand how critical the U.S. hurricane program is to their constituents’ safety. Hopefully they'll speak up.