TROPICAL MOISTURE CHANNEL EDGES JUST SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA

A large upper-level low pressure system sitting over the Carolinas is the driving force in our weather. A channel of moisture feeds out of the tropics and wraps into the low. Yesterday, the edge of the channel was over South Florida. A slight shift today, has nudged the channel offshore.

This means that the Keys and the extreme southern Peninsula will be closer to the moisture feed, and will have the best chance of heavy thunderstorms.

Beginning tomorrow, however, the upper low is forecast to slowly begin its move to the north, dragging the moisture channel over the southern part of Florida. The likelihood of heavy, slow-moving thunderstorms will increase, and continue for the rest of the week.

Thursday and Friday look like the stormiest days, but as we’ve seen, predicting exactly when and where the heaviest rain will occur within a band of moisture is problematic.

The National Hurricane Center is noting the slight possibility of a short-lived, quasi-tropical system developing off the Carolina coast today. It would be daughter system of the big upper-level low. It’s unlikely to last long enough to establish its own identity, however, and develop any tropical characteristics.

Otherwise, the tropics are dominated by Saharan Dust and are expected to remain quiet through the week.