• Bryan Norcross

Tropical Storm Earl eases away from the Caribbean islands and another disturbance to watch

Tropical Storm Earl has strengthened a bit. It is drifting north away from the Caribbean, so it’s not directly affecting land, but it is dragging tropical moisture over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and nearby areas. Flash flooding will be possible where a band of thunderstorms sets up as they rotate into Earl’s circulations. The moisture feed will slowly taper off over the next few days as Earl moves off to the north.



Earl is a raggedy-looking storm due to hostile upper winds pushing dry air into the circulation, but Hurricane Hunters have found that the top winds have increased a bit. Computer forecast models show the environment improving over the next few days, so the National Hurricane Center is forecasting Earl to eventually intensify into a strong hurricane as it tracks into the North Atlantic.


About Friday, Earl will be passing Bermuda, but the island is close enough to the forecast track that they’ll need to monitor future forecasts carefully to be sure nothing changes. After passing Bermuda, Earl will follow Danielle into the tropical graveyard of the cold North Atlantic Ocean.



Hurricane Danielle has likely peaked in intensity with 90 mph winds. Colder water is ahead on its track, and in the next 2 to 3 days, it will likely be absorbed into the northern jet-stream flow. A large band of tropical moisture loosely associated with Danielle might affect the British Isles around next weekend.



The Tropical Disturbance near the Cabo Verde Islands off the coast of Africa shows up as a broad area of disorganized thunderstorms. The system is forecast to track west into the tropical Atlantic. There is a lot of dry air ahead of the disturbance, but enough moisture is coming with the system that it might be able to develop. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a medium chance of organizing into at least a tropical depression.


By late in the week, it appears likely that Earl, which is forecast to be a hurricane at that time, will provide a path north through the central Atlantic. At this time, the disturbance does not appear to be a threat to land, even if it does develop.


Otherwise, disturbances will continue to roll off Africa every few days, but nothing appears threatening at this time.