• Bryan Norcross

Tropical Storm Karl to make landfall late tonight in southern Mexico

Tropical Storm Karl is still showing signs of life despite the hostile atmospheric environment pressing in on the storm. Dry air pushed into the circulation by strong upper-level winds helped weaken the system yesterday, but it’s surging a bit this morning. The upper winds will win the battle, however, and Karl’s intensity will be limited.


The storm is still drifting to the south. The center is forecast to arrive at the Mexican coast late tonight.



The winds will not be the biggest factor with this storm, but they will be quite gusty at the coast. Over land, Karl and its remnants will be capable of producing very heavy rain over a wide swath of southern Mexico. Higher rain amounts, perhaps approaching a foot, will be possible in some areas, especially where the mountains enhance the rainfall.


Karl is expected to die out quickly over the weekend as its moisture gets swept away to the west. This will limit the amount of rain that will fall to some degree.



Elsewhere in the tropics, a Tropical Disturbance on the other side of the Atlantic is a disorganized cluster of thunderstorms. It has a slight chance of developing into at least a tropical depression over the weekend before hostile upper winds are forecast to impact the system next week. In any case, it is not expected to affect land areas.


A weak cold front will push through Florida by tomorrow, and a stronger one is currently forecast for next week. Often, the regular arrival of autumn fronts signals the end of hurricane season for the Gulf and East Coasts and Florida.


Occasionally, weird stuff can happen, however. A low-pressure system sometimes develops out of a stalled front, or a non-tropical system sits over the still-warm water long enough to organize into something tropical. But for now, the fronts are a dividing line between tropical air to the south and refreshing continental air to the north.