• Bryan Norcross

Tropical Storm Karl weakens as it drifts toward the Mexican coast

The atmospheric environment around Tropical Storm Karl is becoming increasingly hostile as a cold front and its associated band of strong upper-level winds pushes through the Southeast. Meanwhile, light steering currents will push the storm slowly south in the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico.



The increasing upper winds have pushed the strong thunderstorms associated with the circulation off to the east, which has weakened the top winds in the storm. This weakening process is forecast to continue until the system reaches the Mexican coast in Veracruz or Tabasco states late tomorrow or early Saturday.



The main threat from Karl will be the heavy rain that will fall over a wide area in southern Mexico. Some locations in the coastal sections are forecast to receive up to a foot of rain. Karl's remnants will also produce heavy rain in the mountainous regions farther inland as the system's circulation dissipates over the weekend.



On the other side of the ocean, the National Hurricane Center is making note of a Tropical Disturbance that has moved off Africa into the tropical Atlantic. The system is forecast to eventually lift to the north and not be a threat to land. On the projected path, the disturbance will be tracking near hostile upper winds, so its development chances are considered low at this time.


The pattern shift that will push the cold front through Florida this week is forecast to leave a hostile weather pattern over the southeastern U.S. and the Bahamas, so no tropical threats are expected for the foreseeable future. There's a decent chance that this pattern will protect us for the rest of the hurricane season, but on a rare occasion, a freak storm has popped up, so we'll continue to watch the Caribbean and Gulf waters to the south.