TROPICS: SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2019

KAREN IS NO LONGER AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM. THOUGH SOME OF ITS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

EX-KAREN’s circulation no longer has organized thunderstorms around it. Hostile upper winds have elongated it and pulled the system apart.

A strong high-pressure system – the same one that has been causing the extreme late-September heat across the Deep South – has now stretched out over the Atlantic. The flow around the bottom of that blocking high will push Karen’s moisture toward Florida. About Thursday, the computer forecast models indicate that that moisture, mixed with typical tropical moisture from the south, will increase cloudiness and rain across the peninsula. No consequential weather is expected.

HURRICANE LORENZO is turning north well east of the Caribbean islands. It is a large and exceptionally powerful storm for that part of the ocean. It will slowly weaken as it heads in the direction of the Azores Islands – a territory belonging to Portugal, but well east of that country – but still be a strong system when it moves near or over the islands Tuesday or Wednesday.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts Lorenzo to transition into a strong North Atlantic winter-type storm. Long-range computer forecast models indicate it may track across Ireland about Thursday and the remnants move across northern Europe after that.

OTHERWISE, the tropics are expected to be quiet through the middle of next week, at least.

We are transitioning out of the season where we look to Africa for the source of tropical systems. In October, we will keep an eye on the western Caribbean Sea.