TROPICS UPDATE: FRIDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2019
WE’RE WATCHING THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. NO EFFECT ON FLORIDA IS EXPECTED.
The National Hurricane Center is watching a broad AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER extending from the southwest Caribbean across Central America into the Pacific. Some computer forecast models indicate that an organized circulation might spin off from that area and move toward the Yucatan Peninsula and the southern Gulf of Mexico.
The odds of anything significant developing are low over the next several days, and even if it does, the system is likely to move over or near Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize in Central America. It is also possible the disturbance will organize on the Pacific side. There is no threat to Florida.
In the long range, if the system gets into the southern Gulf of Mexico, we’ll watch it for the Gulf Coast.
The NOR’EASTER that has been pounding the Northeast coast is still meandering around offshore. The system is looking more tropical now – thunderstorms are wrapping around the center. This consolidation around the center is having the effect of pulling the bad weather away from the New York coastline, although some bands of gusty rain are still affecting New England. The tides are still running very high, however, on north and east facing shorelines.
The system still has a chance of becoming tropical enough in structure as it sits over the unusually warm water off the Mid-Atlantic coast to get a name from the National Hurricane Center. In any case, the storm will move out to sea tomorrow.
Over AFRICA, computer forecast models show a system developing that may move out over the Atlantic. Even if it does, it is not forecast to make it very far west.
ELSEWHERE, no tropical development is expected.