TROPICS UPDATE: FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2019
KAREN IS ON ITS LAST LEGS, BUT IT’S NOT DEAD YET. THE ODDS OF ANY NOTICEABLE EFFECT ON FLORIDA ARE VERY LOW.
KAREN has run into hostile upper winds and is not able to maintain a circulation with organized thunderstorms around it. Over the next day or two, dry air is going to get injected into the system, which should do it in.
The current thinking is that the remnants of Karen are most likely to stay well offshore of the Bahamas and eventually get swept out to sea. Karen has dawdled in the Atlantic well north of Puerto Rico, which has allowed time for strong high pressure to push over the ocean off the east coast with very dry air and hostile upper winds.
Mid to late week next week, a moisture surge is forecast to approach Florida from the east that may include a small component from Karen, but it will be inconsequential. Karen should long be dead by that time.
HURRICANE LORENZO is a very large, and exceptionally powerful hurricane in the eastern Atlantic well east of the Caribbean islands. It will turn north into the open Atlantic, but could threaten the Azores – islands west of Portugal – in the middle of next week, and perhaps Ireland at the end of the week.
ELSEWHERE, the are no systems of immediate interest.