TROPICS UPDATE: MONDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2019

THERE'S AN AREA TO WATCH NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA. PLUS A VERY UNUSUAL DISTURBANCE THAT JUST MOVED OFF AFRICA.

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER continues to straddle Central America. It will spread over Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and southern Mexico bringing dangerous rainfall, especially in the mountains. There is a chance that an organized circulation will form out of this system in the southern Gulf in 2 or 3 days.

If that happens, toward the end of the week a more organized tropical system could move toward the north or northwestern Gulf coast.

In the middle of the Atlantic, a TROPICAL DISTURBANCE is moving toward the southern Caribbean islands. It’s flaring up right now, but will soon run into hostile upper winds. It has a slight chance of developing into a tropical depression with an organized circulation, but most likely will move through the islands as a moisture surge beginning midweek.

A WELL-DEVELOPED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE just moved off of Africa. It’s very unusual to have a strong disturbance – technically an African Easterly Wave – move into the Atlantic this late in the year. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a good chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm today or tomorrow. Its name would be Nestor.

The computer forecast models show the system tracking near or over the Capo Verde Islands just off Africa, and then fading out north of the islands. It’s not forecast to threaten any other land areas.

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA is still chugging off into the North Atlantic, although seas and surf remain a bit high along the East Coast. It is forecast to die off today or tomorrow. Its remnants will slowly dissipate.