TROPICS UPDATE: MONDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2019

TWO STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEK. NEITHER WILL DIRECTLY THREATEN FLORIDA, ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE STATE.

A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM is developing on the cold front draped across the middle of the Atlantic. It is forecast to drift to the west, but should stay well away from land and not be a threat. It may become tropical enough in structure to eventually get a name.

The next two names on the list are Melissa and Nestor.

Also, about midweek, a complex combination of the broad TROPICAL DISTURBANCE in the Caribbean, the western end of the FRONT, and the UPPER-LEVEL LOW northeast of the Bahamas is forecast to develop into a storm system offshore of the Carolinas or the Mid-Atlantic states.

FLORIDA EFFECTS: Before these systems start to organize to our north, they will pass over Florida bringing the possibility of heavy rain. The odds will increase later today and continue until Wednesday.

Initially, the developing system may be more akin to a winter-type storm, energized by the contrast of the cool air to the north and the warm tropical air to the south. As it sits over the Gulf Stream, however, it may start taking energy from the ocean, and become tropical enough to get a name.

The question is, how will it affect the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast? It could be a significant coastal storm, something like a nor’easter, at the end of the week, or it could stay far enough offshore and have less effect.

If the second system is as strong and large as the computer forecast models indicate, it may kill off the first one.

HISTORICALLY, the first week of October has been a quiet time for hurricane landfalls in South Florida. Things pick up in the second and third weeks, however. So that’s the hump that we have to get over.

We will watch the southwestern Caribbean where we see a broad area of low pressure, as we often do this time of year.