TROPICS UPDATE: SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2019
THE TROPICS ARE QUIET. IN SOUTH FLORIDA, WE HAVE A CHANCE OF A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND – ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS REMAIN.
Winter-time conditions dominate the tropics. Hostile upper winds are blowing from the Gulf of Mexico across to Africa. The waters in the Caribbean, the Gulf, and surrounding waters are still plenty warm to support a tropical system, so we can’t rule out something developing if a pocket of favorable conditions persists long enough, but there is no sign of anything now. And nothing is projected to develop through the middle of next week, at least.
We will keep an eye on the southwestern Caribbean Sea this month to see if anything spins up there.
The consensus of the computer forecast models is that a noticeable cold front will finally come to South Florida around next weekend. The long-range projections are that cooler, less-humid air will push through the state about Saturday. But… the indications are that it won’t be a “clean” front that will bring an extended spell of sunny, dry weather.
The orientation of the high-pressure area behind the front – if the computer forecast models are correct – will cause the wind to blow off the ocean, which will bring back some moisture and keep the temperatures, especially on the east coast, on the warm side.
It is too early to be specific on the timing, and things could certainly change, but this is the first decent consensus that a fall front will finally come through.
This is the last Tropics Update of the season unless a something unforeseen develops. We end the season (we hope) with 17 named storms including 6 hurricanes, including two Category 5’s.
Enjoy the off season. See you in 2020!