TROPICS UPDATE: SUNDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2019

TWO STORM SYSTEMS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEK, BUT NEITHER WILL THREATEN FLORIDA.

A cold front that has pushed out over the Atlantic Ocean and the broad area of thunderstorms in the Caribbean will combine into one elongated disturbance. The Caribbean moisture will lift north, and the front will move south, bringing rainy weather to a good part of peninsula Florida midweek.

The computer forecast models indicate that two discrete weather disturbances will spin up along that area. The first one is forecast to start to form way out in the middle of the ocean in the next couple of days.

As the western end of the front and disturbance combo moves north, the second system is forecast to develop off the coast of the Carolinas mid to late week. This system will track nearer the Mid Atlantic coast.

Neither system will initially be tropical. Their energy will come from the contrast of the cool air to the north and the warm tropical air to the south of the front. But as the circulations of the new systems sit over fairly warm water, they may acquire tropical characteristics, at least for a while, so their energy comes, at least partially, from the warm ocean.

The system of most concern is the second one. It may develop over the Gulf Stream, and won’t be too far offshore of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast coast. At the very least, it could produce dangerous ocean conditions and blustery weather along the coast like a strong nor’easter. The two systems may interact in unpredictable ways about a week from now.

ELSEWHERE, nothing is in the offing this week. We will watch the western Caribbean. There is a broad area of low pressure there extending across Central America into the Pacific. Sometimes, tropical disturbances tracking across the Atlantic interact with that existing low pressure and create a tropical circulation.