TROPICS UPDATE: THURSDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2019
A STRONG NOR’EASTER WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY WITH SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS. THE EFFECT IN FLORIDA WILL BE TO PUSH DRIER NORTHERN AIR INTO THE STATE.
A strong winter-type storm system – a NOR’EASTER – will peak in intensity today off the Northeast coast. Impacts to coastal sections will be winds over 50 mph, coastal flooding, and periods of heavy rain. While not a tropical system, the effects will be like a large-diameter tropical storm.
The National Hurricane Center is still giving it a slight chance to partially convert to tropical status by drawing some of its energy from warm ocean water, though the odds are very low. In any case, that wouldn’t affect coastal impacts.
The two other systems we were tracking – the TROPICAL DISTURBANCE that dumped heavy rain on South Florida and the NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE system in the central Atlantic – will essentially be absorbed by the nor’easter, which will begin to move out to sea tomorrow.
The main effect on South Florida will be a push of drier northern air that is forecast to push through the state. A strong breeze off the ocean will develop tomorrow, so a shower isn’t impossible, but the change in the air will be noticeable.
ELSEWHERE, a broad area of low pressure is sitting over Central America stretching from the Pacific to the southwestern Caribbean. We will watch there for potential development, although there are no signs of anything of concern at this time.