TROPICS UPDATE: THURSDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2019

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ORGANIZING A BIT, BUT ITS LIFESPAN IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT.

The disorganized tropical disturbance that has moved into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico has a brief window to organize into a tropical depression. The system is a combination of a disturbance that came from the southwestern Caribbean and the west end of the same cold front that’s been sitting over the south-central part of the Florida peninsula.

There’s a patch of generally favorable upper-level winds that the system will be under later today and tomorrow. That’s the period of time when a circulation could organize.

Late tomorrow and over the weekend, a strong cold front will move off of Texas. Between the front and its associated strong upper-level winds, the disturbance, whatever form it is in, should be absorbed or dissipate. The moisture from the front and the disturbance will mix together into a heavy-rain event for the northern Gulf coast and well north into the Midwest and Northeast.

Tropical air remains entrenched over South Florida. The consensus of the long-range computer forecast models is that no cold fronts will be able to clear the state for the rest of this month into early November. High pressure in the middle of the atmosphere is anchored over the Bahamas and Florida, and it’s acting like a block, keeping the fronts from pushing down the peninsula.

Outside the possibility in the Gulf, no development is expected through the weekend.