TROPICS UPDATE: TUESDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2019

THE TAIL OF EX-TROPICAL STORM NESTOR HAS NOW MOVED NORTH OF THE FLORIDA, MEANING THE ENTIRE PENINSULA IS IN THE EXTREMELY WARM AND HUMID TROPICAL AIR. ELSEWHERE, THE TROPICS ARE MOSTLY CALM.

Tropical Storm Nestor pulled tropical air over the peninsula of Florida last week. As it exited, it pushed cooler, drier air as far sound as Lake Okeechobee. The dividing line between the summertime air over South Florida and the fall air over the northern peninsula was the tail of Nestor – essentially a front.

Now that Ex-Nestor has pulled away from the East Coast and is dying in the Atlantic, the tail has moved north and weakened, so the entire peninsula is covered by the unusually hot and humid air.

A cold front is coming, but again this front will not make it much past Central Florida, so no dry air will reach South Florida. A wind shift will make it feel better along the southeast coast by the end of week, but no typical dry fall air is in sight.

A moisture surge moving out of the southwestern Caribbean into the southern Gulf of Mexico – like the one that turned into Nestor – will be met by a strong cold front in the western Gulf, so no development is expected. That cold front will not make it to South Florida.

Elsewhere, there are no areas of concern in the tropics.