Watching for a Nasty Coastal Storm to Develop and Stall near the Carolinas

A strong cold front is going to push off the East Coast by early tomorrow. The coldest air of the year on a brisk north wind will move in behind it. There is a strong consensus in the various computer forecasts that a low-pressure system will form along the front similar to the one that developed into the nor'easter last month. This system will play out very differently, however.

While there is general agreement that a nor'easter-type system will form, there is little consensus on what's going to happen next. Which direction will it drift, and how strong will it get?

A number of the generally reliable computer forecasts show the system strengthening and stalling – some near the coast and some well offshore. It will be quite windy behind the front so it looks likely that the system will cause high seas, large waves, and potential coastal flooding and erosion. The potential problems zone runs from North Carolina to Delaware, with the possibility of coastal impact next week as far north as Long Island, New York. It depends on where the system develops, where it tracks, and how strong it ends up being.

In any case, all indications are that it will be a multi-day event.

Coastal storms like this are expected in an El Niño year. This El Niño is stronger than any in our experience, so this storm and the infamous nor'easter might well be harbingers of things to come this winter.

This storm will develop farther south than the September nor'easter, and the ocean off the Carolinas is significantly warmer than normal. If the system cranks up and stalls offshore long enough, it could eventually get energy from warm water and acquire some tropical characteristics.

It couldn't happen quickly, however, because of the significant cold front behind the system. The air would have to warm dramatically for the low to shed its connection to the front.

Everybody along the coast from the Carolinas north should stay informed as the system develops over the next few days.

ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC

The atmospheric environment is generally hostile across the Atlantic, the Caribbean, and the Gulf. So no development is expected.

IN THE PACIFIC NEAR MEXICO

Tropical Storm Simon is weakening and is forecast to die out as it tracks offshore of Cabo San Lucas and Baja California.

Hurricane Trudy is a threat to Manzanillo and the west-central Mexican coast. It is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to reach Category 4 strength as it slowly tracks close to the coast early next week. Everybody in that part of Mexico should pay close attention to the forecasts.

Yet another storm might eventually form offshore of southern Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has the chances that at least a depression will form in the medium category over the next seven days.