Watching in the Islands as the Disturbance Plods Across the Tropical Belt

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In the Atlantic

That disorganized tropical disturbance we've been watching is crawling in the general direction of the Caribbean Islands. It is producing more thunderstorms today, but there is no sign yet of significant organization.

The National Hurricane Center is still drawing a large potential development area due to the uncertainty of when the system will pull itself together. They are giving it a high chance of that happening before it gets in the vicinity of the islands around the middle of next week, however.

The system will be fighting dry air and, in spots, hostile upper-level winds, as it heads west. Most of the computer forecast models predict that it will develop a circulation and become at least a tropical depression, which is why the NHC has the odds so high. The models are all over the place on how strong the system will get over the next week, however.

In general, the computer predictions that show the system intensifying fairly soon forecast it to get scooped by the jet stream and turn north. On the other hand, an increasing number of computer forecasts keep it weaker longer and predict it to track near or over the islands.

Even if development is delayed, if it finds a patch of atmosphere conducive to strengthening, it could still be a significant storm over the islands.

The exclusive Tropical Threat analysis that determines a consensus from the European, U.S. GFS, and Google DeepMind models shows that the most likely track is toward the northeast Caribbean.

But importantly, notice that the absolute odds are only 20-30% because of the intrinsic uncertainty looking so far ahead. We’ll watch the trend in the threat analysis.

Everybody in the northeast Caribbean will have to watch for developments next week. On the current schedule, the system will be in the general vicinity next Wednesday or Thursday. If and when it develops a circulation and contains winds of 40 mph or higher, it will be named Tropical Storm Gabrielle.

Beyond a week from now, the forecast gets very fuzzy. If the system does not turn north in response to the big dip in the jet stream over the East Coast, that dip might lift out. In that case, the steering will become much less clear. The slow movement of this system makes timing the coordination of the various weather systems impossible this far out.

Remember the rule: forecasts for systems that are disorganized, just developing, or moving slowly are subject to large errors and likely to change. Don't focus on one prediction at this point.

In the Pacific

Hurricane Lorena is moving over cool waters on its way to landfall on the Baja California Sur peninsula. That’s forecast to happen tomorrow. It will likely make landfall as a much weaker storm, but flooding rain is likely to accompany the system.

The flood threat will expand north into the southwestern U.S. Stay aware of local forecasts in southern Arizona and New Mexico..

Hurricane Kiko is a small but powerful Category 4 storm. It's still on track, heading in the general direction of the Hawaiian Islands. The ocean temperature drops off significantly between the storm and the islands, so the system is expected to be weaker when it is in the general vicinity of the Big Island about next Tuesday.

Kiko has a small footprint, so a slight change in the track will make a big difference in how it impacts the islands, if it does. Everybody in Hawaii and especially on the Big Island should plan to stay informed as the storm moves closer over the weekend.

The tides are already exceptionally high due to the lunar phase. Obviously, if Kiko comes close, even in a weakened state, the ocean water would be even higher.