Watching the Caribbean for a system that looks likely to track into the Gulf

Suddenly, there are 3 potential development areas on the map, but the one of most interest is still in the Caribbean. It's increasingly likely that a tropical system will develop in the central or western Caribbean late in the weekend or early next week. The National Hurricane Center now has the odds in the high range that a tropical depression or tropical storm will form.

Since it's November, there are fronts, upper-level disturbances, and hostile upper winds that complicate the weather pattern over and near the Caribbean. Over the next few days, however, a more typical tropical weather pattern will develop. The computer forecast models all point to a broad area of low pressure developing around Sunday, which spawns a tropical depression or tropical storm next week.

The system will draw rich tropical moisture from the south, which could cause flooding problems for the northern Caribbean islands, including the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands.

The consensus of the computer forecasts is that a depression or possibly a tropical storm will move into the Gulf of Mexico around Thursday. There is no consensus, however, on how strong the system will be at that point. The weather pattern looks reasonably conducive for the system to organize and strengthen, although interaction with the mountainous islands could affect that process if it tracks across the northern part of the Caribbean.

In any case, toward the end of next week, there's a decent chance we'll have a named storm in the Gulf. We are talking a week from now, so the forecasts are fuzzy, but a combination of cooler Gulf waters, dry air, and hostile upper winds should keep a strong storm from affecting the U.S. Gulf Coast. That's based on what we know now, of course.

Nothing is expected to happen fast, and as always, forecasts for systems that haven't yet developed are subject to major changes. So everybody from Texas to Florida should stay tuned to be sure nothing misbehaves.

OVER PUERTO RICO, the National Hurricane Center is noting a disturbance with a very low chance of developing. The large area of thunderstorms is being caused by an upper-level disturbance, its associated non-tropical low-pressure system, plus an old cold front that's been in the area for days.

The disturbance will spread heavy rain across the northern Caribbean islands, which could cause flooding in the higher terrain. The system will track to the west, and in a few days, it looks likely to rotate into the developing Caribbean system and be absorbed.

IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC, a prominent non-tropical low-pressure system has a chance of becoming somewhat tropical and getting a name. This time of year, sometimes the core of large, comma-shaped, non-tropical systems breaks free and becomes an independent low. The waters are marginally warm enough for the system to take on some tropical characteristics.

The system will head in the general direction of the Azores islands over the next couple of days.

The next two names on the list are Patty and Rafael. We'll see which order the names get used, if they get used at all.