Watching the Gulf for possible development midweek while Bermuda carefully watches Larry
The weak disturbance that started in the Caribbean is over Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula and forecast to drift into the Gulf of Mexico by late today. It’s a very diffuse system that is better defined above ground in the mid-levels of the atmosphere.
Computer forecast models indicate that it will ease toward the northern Gulf coast over the next few days. The big concern at this point is whether it might affect southeastern Louisiana, which is in such precarious shape after Hurricane Ida.
In the short term, the upper-level winds are fairly hostile, so no significant development is expected. Tuesday and Wednesday, however, the pattern is forecast to evolve a bit so some organization and development are possible.
Most of the computer forecast models bend the system’s track to the east, moving it slowly along or inland of the northern Gulf coast. The details of the future track are unforecastable, however, since there is not even a center to track.
There is no indication that the disturbance would suddenly get very strong at this time, but any system over the warm Gulf water has to be watched carefully.
The National Hurricane Center is giving it a low chance of organizing, but even a wet disturbance would be disruptive in the Ida disaster zone.
Out in the Atlantic, Hurricane Larry has the appearance of a large, powerful hurricane. Large hurricanes with wide eyes like Larry move a lot of water, so giant swells will pound the shorelines of the Caribbean islands, Bermuda, and eventually the U.S. East Coast.
In South Florida, the Bahamas will block a lot of the energy, although some might be felt along the beaches in Broward and Palm Beach County. Midweek, watch for warning flags at all of the beaches before you go in the ocean.
Larry is heading in the general direction of Bermuda. The consensus of the computer forecast models is that the worse of the storm will miss the island to the east. But the circulation is so large that impacts are still expected. The level of the effects is still uncertain.
Elsewhere, nothing seems to be percolating, which is interesting since the peak of the season, in terms of the likelihood of a named storm, comes next week. Dusty Saharan air seems to be making life difficult for systems moving off Africa.