Watching the northern Gulf of Mexico later this week

The National Hurricane Center is painting the northern Gulf as an area to watch for quick tropical development toward the end of the week. The odds of something organizing look low right now, but ingredients are forecast to come together that sometimes result in a tropical system spinning up.

There is a large area of disturbed weather across the south related to a stalled front. It’s been causing periods of rain, some of it quite heavy, from Louisiana to the Carolinas.

At the same time, a large upper-level disturbance is south of Florida and drifting toward the Gulf. It’s kicking off some quick downpours over and around the southern Florida peninsula and the Keys.

It’s likely that these two disturbances will interact in some fashion later this week. Sometimes, a combination like this over the very warm waters of the Gulf can result in an organized system spinning up.

There is no indication of it yet, and the long-range computer forecast models are all over the place on where it might happen or whether it will happen at all. For now, it’s just something to be aware of.

Regardless of whether anything organized develops, persistent heavy rain is forecast along the northern Gulf coast and across the South.

Otherwise, the tropical Atlantic is dominated by dry, dusty air, so no development is expected this week.