We'll Keep an Eye on a Small Disturbance and Eventually the Remnants of Dolly in the Gulf

A dip in the jet stream left behind a cluster of thunderstorms which has turned into a small tropical disturbance in the northern Gulf. Officially it’s tagged Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center. The system is trapped under the heat dome high-pressure system that's bringing hot weather to the Midwest, which will slowly nudge it toward the upper Texas coast.

The National Hurricane Center puts the odds it will reach tropical depression status in the low range. It only has a couple days, but the Gulf water is plenty warm, and the atmospheric pattern looks reasonably conducive to development.

There's a long history of small systems spinning up quickly in the northwestern Gulf, of course. The curvature of the coast and the extremely warm water contribute to that phenomenon.

Everyone from Galveston to Southwest Louisiana should stay in touch with the forecast over the next couple days just in case something unexpected happens.

On the current schedule, the disturbance or whatever form it's in will arrive at the Texas or Louisiana coast late Monday or Tuesday.

THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY

Ex-Dolly doesn't have a circulation, but it's still producing gusty rain squalls, some of them quite heavy, over Puerto Rico and the rest of the northeastern Caribbean islands. There is no center to track, but the disturbance is forecast to move in the general direction of Florida and the southeastern Gulf over the next several days.

In the short term, nothing is expected to happen, but as ex-Dolly clears the Caribbean islands, it has a chance of developing. The National Hurricane Center has the odds in the low range, but let's see in a couple days once the system moves away from the mountainous islands.

The various computer forecasts don't show much development in the Gulf, though there is a reasonable consensus that the disturbance will bring rainy weather to the Florida Peninsula late next week or over next weekend.

Just plan to keep an eye on it later next week.

NEAR HAWAII

There continues to be a lot of action, but no specific threats to land in the next five days. Currently Tropical Storm and eventually Hurricane Lowell is the question for about a week from now.

The storm is forecast to track well south of the Hawaiian Islands and eventually turn north. On its own, the computer model forecasts show it clearing the islands without significant impacts, besides strong swells and large waves at the coast.

In some forecast scenarios, however, Hurricane Karina comes close enough to Lowell to affect its path and make the long-range predictions more uncertain. Karina is forecast to track in the general direction of Hawaii as it is weakening over cooler water. Many of the computer forecasts show no significant interaction, but some others show Karina slowing Lowell's progress, which could affect its eventual track.

For now, there's nothing to do but stay informed, especially on Oahu and Kauai. If Lowell were to become a problem, it wouldn't be for at least a week.

ELSEWHERE IN THE PACIFIC

There is yet another system developing off the coast of Mexico. It is likely to turn into a strong tropical storm or hurricane as it moves north well offshore.

Some computer forecasts show it feeding a strong dose of tropical moisture into Southern California and the desert Southwest about a week from now. We'll see how the forecasts evolve once the system develops.