A disorganized tropical disturbance is plodding across the stretch of ocean from Africa to the Caribbean. Atmospheric conditions do not look conducive for it to develop much before it reaches the islands - most likely the Windward Islands - next Sunday or Monday. Once it reaches the western Caribbean later next week, however, some computer forecasts predict the pattern will allow the system to organize and strengthen.   The possibilities range from no development at all to a

The tropical disturbance that moved off Africa over the weekend is slowly tracking west across the tropical Atlantic. It's quite far south and east for a system this time of year, although occasionally these systems occur.   The consensus of the various computer forecasts is that the disturbance will track toward the Caribbean, arriving near the islands next Sunday or Monday. There is no indication in any of the models that the system would be strong at that time, but of cour