• Bryan Norcross

A few weak systems over the Atlantic and Africa remind us that the peak of the season is coming

The National Hurricane Center is making note of three disturbances – one midway between Africa and the Caribbean and two near the African coast. None has significant organization, but it’s a reminder that this is where we will start to watch as we move toward the heart of the hurricane season.



Disturbance #1 is forecast to head in the general direction of the northeastern Caribbean islands. Initially it’s going to plow into a big plume of Saharan dust. Around the weekend, however, when it’s closer to the islands, it should be past that and the atmosphere might be a bit more conducive for development.


At this point, it’s only something to keep an eye on. None of the medium-range computer forecast models show any significant development.



Disturbance #2 is located over and around the Cabo Verde Islands. This one no longer appears to have a chance to develop as it heads into the big dust plume and over cooler water.


Disturbance #3 shows up well on the Africa satellite view. The system is forecast to move out over the Atlantic waters late tomorrow or early Friday. It will have some moisture to work with in a pocket between Africa and the big plume of Saharan Dust up ahead.


The National Hurricane Center is giving Disturbance #3 a low chance of developing over the next 5 days. Besides the dust, the upper-level winds are forecast to be hostile as the system moves to the west, so even if it develops in the short term, it’s not expected to continue as an organized system as it heads toward the Caribbean islands.


Long-range computer forecast models show no significant threats through the weekend, at least.


Saharan dust season usually tapers off by the middle of August as the odds of tropical systems developing go up. But the special computer model focusing on dust keeps it coming into the middle of the month. We’ll see.


One other thought, many areas in Florida and along the Gulf coast have had significantly above normal rainfall this summer. Keep that in mind if we get a tropical threat this season. Fresh-water flooding could be a bigger problem than normal.