• Bryan Norcross

Atlantic system likely to develop while the Gulf system is a maybe

Disturbance #1, which we have been following across the deep tropical Atlantic, has slowed down a little bit. It is now expected to cross the southernmost Caribbean islands near or over Trinidad and Tobago late tomorrow or early Wednesday. One the current schedule, it would reach the ABC islands – Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao – late Wednesday into early Thursday.



The strength of the storm is an open question. The disturbance is showing signs of development and the atmospheric conditions appear conducive for the system to organize. It could reach tropical storm strength before it gets to the islands. There’s a good chance the National Hurricane Center will issue Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings for some the islands later today.


If Tropical Disturbance #1 becomes a tropical storm, it will be named Bonnie.


The system is on a very unusual southern track. It’s extremely rare for a tropical system to affect Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada, and the surrounding islands in June, not to mention the ABC islands. The northern coast of Venezuela including the islands just offshore will also be impacted if the system stays on this track.


The gustiest winds will be on the right side of the storm since it’s moving quickly east to west. This means that mountainous islands north of the storm track will get the strongest winds and heaviest rain, regardless of how well organized the circulation becomes.


Everybody in the southeastern Caribbean needs to stay informed.


A strong nose of high-pressure extending across the Atlantic and into the Gulf will keep the storm well to the south. In fact, there’s some question whether it will track just offshore of Venezuela and Colombia, or if the South American landmass will disrupt the system as it goes by.


Over the weekend or early next week, the computer forecast models show the system impacting Central America, possibly as a stronger system.



In the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center is making note of a persistent-but-disorganized area of disturbed weather along the northern Gulf coast – Tropical Disturbance #2. As a cold front pushes in from the north, the consensus of the computer forecast models is that the broad disturbance will drift toward the south Texas coast. It doesn’t appear that it would get very strong, but there’s a slight chance it could organize into at least a tropical depression over the next couple days.


This disturbance combined with an approaching cold front will produce an extended period of rainy weather along the entire northern Gulf coast this week.


Behind the first Atlantic system we’re tracking, there’s also Tropical Disturbance #3. It doesn’t show any signs of organization and will likely take a more northerly track toward the Caribbean. That means it will plow into dry air and hostile upper winds. It has a slight chance of developing before it reaches the northeastern Caribbean islands late in the week.


‘Tis the season. Although, it is definitely early to have all this going on.