Concern grows for flooding from Ida while a new system is just about to form in the Atlantic

What’s left of Ida is moving out of Mississippi and into Tennessee on its way to the northeastern U.S. It will drag a boatload of tropical moisture with it. When that moisture interacts with the mountains and higher terrain, the enhanced rainfall is funneled into rivers, creeks, and valleys, and dramatic and sudden flooding is very possible.

After Hurricane Camille made landfall in Mississippi in 1969, it took a similar arcing path inland, though a bit farther south. Over 150 people died in Virginia from landslides and flash flooding, when parts of the mountains gave way in the torrential rain.

The biggest concern from Ida is for the mountainous area in Maryland, West Virginia, and southern Pennsylvania.

The swath of excessive rainfall extends from the South into the big cities of the Northeast and southern New England. Rain is forecast to pick up late Wednesday and last into Thursday in those areas.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the Tropical Disturbance that just moved off Africa is well on its way to being a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Larry. It’s a large system, and will likely turn into a large, strong hurricane – at least that’s the consensus of the computer forecast models.

The current forecasts call for Larry to curve up into the central Atlantic. The long-range forecasts are encouraging, but we’ll watch to be sure it doesn’t surprise us.

Tropical Storm Kate is nothing of consequence. It is forecast to drift north and die out in the central Atlantic ahead of potential Larry.

In the southern Caribbean, a disorganized area of thunderstorm might try to congeal into a tropical depression as it tracks along the Central American coast. The odds of it developing are low.

Nothing else is in the pipeline for now.