The odds that the Tropical Disturbance in the Caribbean will organize and strengthen are now in the high range. The National Hurricane Center is still painting a large potential development zone across much of the Caribbean, indicating the uncertainty in where the development will occur.   The disturbance is already producing winds near 40 mph, so the system is likely to become Tropical Storm Melissa when it organizes a full circulation or soon thereafter.   The upper-level w

The National Hurricane Center has bumped up the odds that at least a tropical depression will form in the Caribbean this week from the disturbance they have tagged Invest 98L. They now have the chances in the high-medium range, which is in line with the consensus of the computer forecasts.   The tropical disturbance we've been following on its trek from Africa will cross the southeastern Caribbean islands – the Windward Islands – today and into tomorrow. The outer bands of th