Gabrielle Is Likely to Form from the Atlantic disturbance (#92L)

The National Hurricane Center has the odds that the disturbance (now Invest #91L) in the eastern Atlantic will form into at least a tropical depression in the high range. The computer forecast models almost uniformly predict the system will become Tropical Storm and then Hurricane Gabrielle.

The disturbance is currently wrapped in dusty air, but a strong consensus of the computer forecast models predicts that it will find enough moisture to organize and strengthen. The odds are high that the system will stay clear of the Caribbean islands as it passes by late in the week on its way into the central Atlantic.

A number of the long-range forecasts track the storm in the general direction of Bermuda next week. Residents there will have to keep an eye on it. But that's 9 or 10 days off.

Since the system hasn't even developed yet, forecasts always have uncertainty in them, of course, even though the forecast models are in strong agreement. So if you're in Puerto Rico or the nearby islands, just keep an eye out to be sure the system behaves as predicted.

A strong dip in the jet stream over the eastern U.S. is deflecting any system that tries to come in our direction to the north. That feature is forecast to mostly stay in place for the foreseeable future. Assuming the forecasts are right, systems coming from the east will get diverted before getting anywhere near the East Coast.

Strong jet stream dips can sometimes encourage systems developing in the southern Gulf or western Caribbean to pull north. There's no sign of that yet, but late this month and into October, that's what we'll watch for.

Overall, the Atlantic is extremely hostile to tropical development. That doesn’t mean that a system can’t spin up and sneak under a bubble of atmosphere conducive to development, but the generally unsupportive regime minimizes that threat, at least for a while.