Eventually We Might Have to Watch the Atlantic Disturbance (#96L)

The robust tropical disturbance that the National Hurricane Center officially tagged Invest 96L has begun its trek across the tropical Atlantic in the general direction of the northeast Caribbean. It's carrying a reasonable amount of moisture, so it has a chance to fight off the Saharan dust sufficiently to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next day or two.

The National Hurricane Center now has the development odds in the high range.

As it gets closer to the Caribbean toward the weekend, the El Niño-powered upper-level winds could become more formidable, however, so the consensus of the various computer forecasts is that the system will weaken and possibly dissipate.

In any case, it's too early to know exactly what's going to happen when the system is near the islands since the potential depression or storm has just begun to think about developing. Having said that, there is no indication at this point that a major storm would impact the northeast Caribbean.

Things get murky after that. If the system survives its encounter with the hostile upper winds, and ends up north or northeast of the islands, the water is warm and the atmospheric environment is forecast to become more conducive to the system strengthening.

There is no consensus in the long-range computer forecasts where the potential storm will track or how strong it will be if it does develop or redevelop next week. Some potential tracks take it near the U.S., others arc it north well offshore, while a significant number die out before it can get to the more hospitable conditions north of Puerto Rico.

If and when the system develops, the models should settle down and give us a better idea of the real chances of whether there will be a storm to track in the Atlantic late next week.

ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC

The disturbance northeast of Bermuda is hanging on. If it can't get organized by tomorrow, its window of opportunity to become a depression or maybe be named Dolly will close. The NHC chances are in the medium range.

IN THE PACIFIC

The Eastern and Central Pacific have gone insane with tropical development. Seven tropical systems are either strengthening, weakening, or are likely to develop. The good news is that there is no threat to land for the next week, at least.

100 YEARS AGO TODAY

Landfalling Hurricane #2 of the epic 1926 season came ashore southwest of New Orleans on the evening of August 25, 1926. It formed in the Caribbean five days earlier, snuck between Cuba and Mexico, and intensified in the Gulf. The modern estimate is that the top winds were 115 mph at landfall.

There was damage across a wide swath of southeastern Louisiana, but New Orleans took a glancing blow. There was still plenty of drama there, however.

Hurricane Season 1926 was just getting started.