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  • Writer's pictureBryan Norcross

Hurricane season is back on pause as Caribbean systems fade

We still have two X's on the board, but neither of them is expected to amount to anything significant.

Disturbance #1 is passing over the mountains of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Heavy rain in the high terrain is the primary threat.

The disturbance is interacting with a sharp dip in the jet stream located over the Bahamas. The combo system is producing a large, disorganized area of thunderstorms over the island and the ocean waters east of the Bahamas.

Tomorrow plus or minus, a broad low-pressure system is forecast to form out of the mass of moisture. The energy to generate the system will come mainly from the jet-stream dip, however, not the warm Atlantic water. So it likely won't be tropical, but instead just a garden-variety weak low-pressure area.

In any case, the system is forecast to get swept out to sea and not be of any consequence to land areas.

Disturbance #2 is going to move through the eastern Caribbean islands as just a moisture surge. Heavy rain and gusty winds are still possible on the affected islands over the next couple of days before the system gets swept out to sea as well.

These were always low-odds systems, but the water in the tropics is still plenty warm to invigorate and sustain a system, so we pay attention just to be sure the forecasts that the disturbances won't develop are correct.

Elsewhere, nothing is showing in the long-range computer model forecasts through the weekend, and very little after that. Toward the end of this month, we'll have to keep an eye on the western Caribbean. If anything is going to form, that's the favored place for it to happen.


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