• Bryan Norcross

Surprise… there are systems to watch in the Atlantic

A couple of tropical disturbances around the Caribbean islands have a slight possibility of developing over the next few days, though the atmospheric pattern is not very supportive of either system acquiring an organized circulation.



Tropical Disturbance #2 became surprisingly well organized yesterday when it ran into a pocket of somewhat conducive upper-level winds several hundred miles east of the Caribbean islands. As forecast, however, the upper winds have now turned more hostile, so the National Hurricane Center puts low odds on it organizing into a tropical depression or tropical storm.


There’s still a slight chance that it could briefly find another supportive pocket, but there’s no indication it could get very strong. In any case, gusty winds and heavy rain are likely on the affected islands in a couple days.



Meanwhile, a separate but very disorganized disturbance will move across Puerto Rico and the surrounding islands today. Disturbance #1 has a very slight chance of developing into a tropical depression after it gets north of the islands.


Heavy rain is forecast across the mountainous northern Caribbean islands from both these disturbances over the next few days.


A deep dip in the jet stream just east of the Florida peninsula will lift the disturbances north of the Caribbean and east of the Bahamas. The steering flow is forecast to shift about Thursday and whisk them out to sea.


Whether there’s any further development or not, there’s no threat to Florida.


Off the North Carolina coast, the disturbance we’ve been watching the last few days has missed its chance for fame. It’s now wrapped up with a frontal system. The whole mass of fronts and low-pressure systems will slowly move away from the East Coast.


Except for the potential eastern Caribbean systems, the tropics look quiet. The long-range computer models show low odds of anything developing in the Atlantic, the Gulf, or the Caribbean. Nothing new is expected this week.


In the Pacific, Pamela has formed. It is forecast to intensify into a strong hurricane and move in the general direction of Cabo San Lucas and Mazatlán, Mexico in the next couple days.