THERE ARE FOUR DISTURBANCES TO WATCH SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
The National Hurricane Center is tracking four areas of disturbed weather across the Atlantic, plus a large upper-level low-pressure area is drifting toward South Florida.
The upper low is drawing moisture from the Caribbean over the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula, and it also contains a pocket of cooler air aloft. The combination increases the chance of thunderstorms with heavy rain today and especially tomorrow starting on the east coast of the state and moving west.
There doesn’t appear to be any threat of this upper-level low developing into a tropical system, however, which can occasionally happen.
At the bottom end of the moisture surge feeding into the upper low is a weak tropical disturbance – Tropical Disturbance #1. There’s a slight chance this system could surprise us – like Nana did last week – and organize a bit over the next couple days. It’s forecast to run into hostile upper winds, however, so the window appears short.
Disturbance #2 near Bermuda is loosely related to the moisture tail of former-Tropical Storm Omar, which has dissipated in the North Atlantic. Disturbance #2 is caught in a westward flow, which will push it toward the U.S. East Coast. Conditions are only marginally conducive for it to get organized, but we’ll keep an eye on it.
Tropical Disturbance #3 is close to becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm. It has a clear circulation, but it’s not organized enough yet to meet the official criteria.
Tropical Disturbance #4, which just moved off the African coast, is also likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm. It will follow #3 in a general westerly direction.
Computer forecast models generally show both of these systems, and another one that’s still over Africa, becoming well-developed storms, although #3 and #4 are fairly close to each other, which means that one might affect the other’s ability to fully organize.
Most of the long-range possibilities presented by the computer forecasts show all of these systems turning north before they get to the Caribbean islands. It’s not set in stone, however, because future tracks depend on a variety of factors including how strong the systems become and how close they get to one another.
In any case, none of these eastern-Atlantic systems are moving quickly, and they’re expected to remain clear of any land areas this week.