• Bryan Norcross

Tropical Disturbances to watch in the Atlantic… just in case

There are three disturbances in the Atlantic plus Hurricane Enrique in the Pacific to watch today. The conditions across the Atlantic are not really conducive for development, but a tropical depression out of one or more of the systems can’t be ruled out.

Tropical Disturbance #1: This small area of disturbed weather was born out of an upper-level disturbance with which it is still entangled. As it moves across the Gulf Stream later today and tomorrow, it has a little window of time to develop an organized circulation and be designated a tropical depression or tropical storm by the National Hurricane Center.

The upper-level winds do not appear supportive, and there is dry air in the area, so the odds are low, but residents along the Georgia and Carolina coasts should watch for developments. It does not appear that it could get very strong even if it does develop. The system should be inland by tomorrow night.

Tropical Disturbance #2: This large disturbance is the one we’ve been following since it came off Africa last week. It’s been crawling across the far eastern Atlantic, but is now going to pick up speed as it heads in the direction of the Caribbean islands.

The disturbance is plowing into dense Saharan Dust, which has rotated into the circulation. This combined with coolish ocean waters provide a somewhat hostile environment for organization and intensification, so any developments are expected to be slow, if they occur at all.

The National Hurricane Center is still giving the system a low chance of development over the next 5 days as it heads toward the Caribbean.

Note that the yellow area on the Potential Development Areas map is not a cone in the traditional sense, even though it kind of looks like it. The idea is that the system is most likely to develop somewhere in that area, if it develops at all over the next 5 days. On the current schedule, it will arrive at the islands around Wednesday.

The somewhat hostile conditions should keep it from getting very strong very quickly, even if it can gain some organization.

Tropical Disturbance #3 is just coming off Africa. Nothing is organized yet, but the long-range computer forecast models show it trekking across the tropical Atlantic over the next week. It’s going to encounter the somewhat cool ocean-water temperatures in the east Atlantic, of course. But Disturbance #2 might clear out a bit of the dust. We’ll see. Nothing has developed yet.

In the Pacific, Hurricane Enrique is tracking north just offshore of the central Mexican coast. The worst of the weather is forecast to avoid land, but fringe effects including gusty winds and potential mudslides could affect the coastline, including near the Puerta Vallarta area, over the next day or two.