• Bryan Norcross

TROPICS TO STAY QUIET FOR THE WEEKEND BUT CRANK UP NEXT WEEK

A tropical dance-a-thon will break out next week in the far eastern Atlantic as four disturbances finally sashay out of the doldrums that have kept them bottled up. Meanwhile, fading Omar is approaching a potential partner in the North Atlantic.


Tropical Disturbance #2 is the ugly duckling of the group. It’s meandering around in the middle of the ocean between Africa and the Caribbean. Depending on how organized it can become over the next few days, it will either be bounced around by the bigger disturbances that will pass it by, or get its moisture stolen away by one of its big brothers and die out.

Tropical Disturbance #3 is a large area of disturbed weather. In the next few days, it is forecast to begin its move to the west, passing north of Disturbance #2. It has a good chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by early next week. It might just deflect Disturbance #2 away and leave it in its wake, or it could kill it off.

Tropical Disturbance #4 will finally move off the coast once Disturbance #3 gets out of the way. As it heads out into the tropical world plotting its own path, it might bounce Disturbance #2 around, if #2 still exists, or absorb it. The long-range computer forecast models give Disturbance #4 a good chance of developing as well.

Off the dance floor and out of site over Africa, another disturbance is coming next week.

The odds are, Disturbance #2 won’t survive the bullying from its bigger brothers, but we’ll see. If it can find a safe patch of ocean far enough from the bigger circulations, it has a chance.

The long-range computer forecast models don’t show any of these systems threatening land at this point, but it’s too soon to know for sure. In any case, nothing is going to happen fast, and certainly not through the Labor Day weekend.

In the North Atlantic, Omar is expected to transition into a typical North Atlantic non-tropical low-pressure system today. Just up the road from Omar is Non-tropical Disturbance #1. It has a small window of time to become a somewhat tropical system, but it won’t have any effect on land.

Even though Omar and Disturbance #1 are coming close, the odds don’t favor a connection. It looks like Disturbance #1 will head off on its own into North Atlantic oblivion and leave what’s left of Omar behind to find its own way.

In the Pacific, the remnants of Nana have moved offshore. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a low chance of redeveloping into a tropical depression or tropical storm off the Mexican coast. If it does, however, it would get a new name since Nana’s circulation died out over the mountains of Central America. This new version of the disturbance will have to reorganize itself, which means it would get a Pacific name.

Enjoy your Labor Day weekend. It looks like we’ll have plenty of systems to watch next week.

© 2019 by Bryan Norcross Corporation

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