TROPICS UPDATE: FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 2019
HURRICANE JERRY WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATE TODAY WITH GUSTY RAIN. THE WORST OF IT WILL STAY OFFSHORE. EX-IMELDA IS FADING, BUT STILL FLOODING EASTERN TEXAS.
HURRICANE JERRY put on a burst of intensification yesterday. The forecast calls for it to lose some intensity soon as it plows into unfavorable upper winds and dry air. The National Hurricane Center is confident that the worst of the weather will stay north of the Caribbean islands and Jerry will turn north out to sea.
The northeastern Caribbean islands will feel gusty winds and heavy rain as the core of the hurricane moves by to the north. Puerto Rico should only feel the fringe, but ocean water will flood low-lying areas and dangerous waves will impact parts of the northern coast today and tomorrow.
EX-IMELDA has dumped 3 to 4 feet of rain in areas around Beaumont, Texas. Parts of the Houston area, especially the east side of the city, have also received tremendous rain. It is finally starting to wind down, but heavy rain at times is expected today, and the flooding will continue.
EX-HUMBERTO is transitioning into a strong North Atlantic storm and is no longer a threat to land.
The flow around Humberto was responsible for pushing the dry air into South Florida on that strong breeze. The wind off the ocean will continue into the weekend. Hurricane Jerry will again pull dry air over all of Florida early next week.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE #1 has a very slight chance to develop, but is a threat because it is causing very heavy rain on some of the mountainous northern Caribbean islands.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE #2 has only a slight chance of developing, but it is forecast by the computer forecast models to move across the southern Caribbean islands as at least a moisture surge over the weekend – bringing gusty winds and some heavy rain – and then into the Caribbean Sea. Because of the location, we’ll watch it.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE #3 is still over Africa, but the computer forecast models have been indicating that it will be quite strong when it crosses into the Atlantic. The early long-range forecasts show it turning north, but until it is over the ocean, we can’t be confident of that. In any case, it’s a long way away.