• Bryan Norcross

THE STEERING FLOW IS KEEPING THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCES AWAY FOR NOW

There are tropical disturbances spread across the tropics. Five are easy to identify, with four of them socially distanced from each other from the Caribbean to Africa.

A dominant high-pressure system over the Atlantic is providing an east-to-west storm track for now, so the southern systems are being steered toward Central America, and the northern system is heading offshore.


Tropical Disturbance #1 formed from a minor disturbance that came out of the Caribbean and looped around the nose the Atlantic high. It has a good chance of developing into a tropical depression over the Gulf Stream off the East Coast as it moves out to sea. Beyond high surf, it’s not expected to affect land.

Tropical Disturbance #2 is showing some organization. It has a decent chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm before it gets to the western Caribbean. Countries there should stay alert.

Whichever one of these systems gets named first, if either of them does, will be called Tropical Storm Nana. The name after that is Omar.

Between the Caribbean and Africa, there are two disturbances: Tropical Disturbances #3 and #4. Both are moving toward the Caribbean islands. Besides dry air nearby, there is a somewhat hostile upper air pattern over the eastern Atlantic, which is keeping them from developing. They are most likely to move through the islands as minor moisture surges over the next week. Neither shows signs of significant development.

A large disturbance is developing over the African continent: Tropical Disturbance #5. The long-range computer forecast models indicate that this system has a better chance to develop when if moves over the ocean in a few days. It will be something to watch next week, but nothing will happen quickly.

So in spite of the Atlantic being busy, no tropical threats are expected this week.

© 2019 by Bryan Norcross Corporation

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